Trump says the US doesn't need Canadian cars, lumber or milk. Users may disagree

As Donald Trump mused about using “economic force” to get Canada, the US president-elect, meanwhile, was also downplaying the importance of the No. 1 trading partner his country.

“We don't need anything they have,” Trump said of Canada, during a press conference at his Mar-a-Lago estate in Florida earlier this week.

He rejected any reliance that the United States might have on trade with its northern neighbor, apparently ignoring that Canadian exports to the US in 2023, for example, were close to $418.6 billion of the US, according to the US Census Bureau.

Trump did not mention the roughly 4.4 million barrels of oil the U.S. receives a day from Canada, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, just over half of the oil imported and imported His number 1.

He zeroed in on the auto, lumber and dairy industries, saying the U.S. could fill Americans' high demand for those products.

But as figures and experts suggest, US demand means that Canada may not be replaced so easily.

Vehicles

Trump told reporters that, as far as Canada is concerned, the US doesn't need “their cars” and would rather make them in Detroit.

Although Canada does not make any of its own vehicles for mass production, it is home to plants from US-based car manufacturers Ford, General Motors and Stellantis North America.

Because of its popularity for vehicles, the US is the world's largest importer of cars – and Canada is one of its largest suppliers. For example, more than 1.5 million vehicles will be produced in Canada in 2023, according to the Canadian Automobile Manufacturers Association.

In a typical year, according to Flavio Volpe, president of the Automotive Parts Manufacturers Association, about 80 percent of vehicles made in Canada are exported to the U.S.

So, could US car manufacturers, as Trump is proposing, remove all their plants from Canada, set up shop in their country and bring all their vehicles to out of the house?

“Absolutely,” said Dimitry Anastakis, a professor of business history at the University of Toronto's Rotman School of Management and an expert on the auto industry.

But there would be a big catch: the decline of the North American auto industry, he said.

“It might help Americans and American producers, but the cost of getting there would be so great that it would likely cause the collapse of North American industry,” he said. “Supply chains are which has been developed for decades.”

US car manufacturers build plants in Canada to take advantage of lower wages, lower exchange rates and also skilled labor. Although moving the plants from Canada to the US would be a labor boost in that country, it would also mean that costs for vehicle users on both sides of the border would rise significantly, said Anastakis.

It would take years to redesign their supply lines and it would be very costly for US manufacturers, he said, because they have invested so much in their operations in Canada.

“This talking point that (Trump) had about 'We could just build them all here,' like snapping your fingers, is completely disconnected from reality because how the industry has evolved over the past 60 years,” Anastakis said.

Volpe said US manufacturers would suffer huge losses by moving and building new plants to the US, something that would take years. “Creating an us-versus-them context is a whole lot of work,” he said.

Wood

According to the Washington, DC-based National Association of Home Builders, US domestic production of softwood lumber is insufficient to meet the demand from the home building industry.

“To help fill this gap, the U.S. depends on softwood lumber from Canada to meet our demand for lumber,” said the group's president and CEO, Jim Tobin, in a statement posted d to CBC News.

The United States uses a lot of wood, and a good part comes from Canada.

“The US imports about 25 percent of total softwood lumber consumption from Canada, which is a very large market share,” said Rajan Parajuli, associate professor of forest economics and policy at NC State University in Raleigh, NC, in an email. to CBC News.

Parajuli said the US does not have the capacity to meet domestic demand.

But Trump said the US doesn't need Canadian timber and has “huge areas of timber” that he could limit with an executive order.

However, Parajuli said it would still be “highly unlikely” that the US, without Canadian lumber, would be able to meet demand. While the US has a fairly sustainable tree inventory, the sawmill industry has limited capacity and a limited supply chain, he said.

For the most part, the logging industry has been in decline for the past two decades, he said.

Russ Taylor, a BC-based forestry consultant, said Trump could loosen regulations to allow more logging in US public forests, but that would require more loggers, truck drivers and workers.

“Where is the labor going to come from and the skilled workers and the capital? It won't happen overnight.”

Taylor said that Trump is also forgetting the processing side of the business and that mills in the US are already operating at about 85 percent capacity.

“Maybe you could push more logs through US sawmills, but you wouldn't get many, you would get some,” he said.

But with about 25 percent of lumber coming from Canada, increasing production by five or 10 percent in the US means “you're still not even close” to meeting demand, Taylor said.

“So the bottom line is that the US needs Canadian lumber, period. “

Milk

In 2023, Canada exported about $488 million Cdn worth of dairy products to the US, according to Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada.

But Trump said the US does not need Canadian dairy products, specifically referring to Canadian milk. And it's true that Canada does not export much milk to the US – about $17 million in 2023.

But there is a market for Canadian cheese, said Andrea Berti, president of the US-based American Cheese Importers Association.

Berti said the U.S. imports a lot of cheese from Canadian-made sheep's milk and goat's milk, products that are not very common in the U.S., because it tends to focus more on cheese. made with cow's milk.

“Goat milk is also produced in the US, but it is a smaller percentage. It is not enough to cover the US demand,” he said. “So we go to Canada for that reason.”

Berti said Americans are also turning to Canada for French-style cheeses, as well as artisan cheeses made in Quebec, which are a favorite in specialty shops.