Rate cuts before the end of the year
- Fed: 24 bps (94% probability of a rate cut at the upcoming meeting)
2025: 75 pp
- ECB 2025: 111 bps (86% probability of a rate cut at the upcoming meeting)
- BoE: 4 bps (83% probability no change at next meeting)
2025: 73 pp
- BoC 2025: 56 bps (63% probability of a rate cut at the upcoming meeting)
- RBA 2025: 72 bps (54% probability of rate cut at next meeting)
- RBNZ 2025: 105 bps (75% probability of a 50 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting)
- SNB 2025: 50 bps (82% probability of a 25 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting)
Rate increases by the end of the year
- BoJ: 5 bps (80% probability unchanged at next meeting)
2025: 44 pp
* where you see a 25 bps rate cut, the rest of the probability is for a 50 bps cut
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.
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