UK GDP came in weaker than expected -0.1% for the month compared to an estimate of +0.1%. Construction output, industrial production, manufacturing production were also weaker and the trade balance had a larger deficit. These declines sent the GBP lower but buyers approached technical support targets and the price has rebounded from the lows.
The EURUSD extends the day upside after cutting rates by 25 basis points. ECBs Centeno said Thursday's decision was “completely unanimous”, while ECBs Vas said decisions will be made by meeting in a data-driven manner.
In today's North American session, US import (-0.2%) and export (-0.2%) prices will be released at 8:30 AM. Canadian manufacturing sales (+1.3%), and wholesale trade (+0.5%) for October will also be released at 8:30 a.m. along with capacity utilization for Q3.
As the North American session begins, US stocks are higher with futures implied
- Dow is up about 65 points,
- S&P is up 24 points, and the
- NASDAQ is up 189 points.
Broadcom and Costco report quarterly earnings after the close and their shares are higher in premarket trading
US yields are up for a fifth consecutive day as traders adjust for and less stimulus than in 2025:
- 2 year 4.207%, up 2.1 basis points. The two-year yield is up 10 basis points this week.
- 5 year 4.203%, up 2.8 basis points. The five-year yield is up 17.2 basis points this week.
- 10 year 4.347%, up 2.3 basis points. The 10-year yield is up 19.6 basis points this week
- 30 year 4.565%, up 1.7 basis points. The 30-year yield is up 23.0 basis points this week
In the cargo space:
- Crude oil is up $0.58 or 0.83% to $70.60. Crude is up 5.09% this week
- Gold is down $9.88 or -0.37% at $2670.66. Gold is up 1.40% this week
- Silver is down $0.11 or -0.3% at $30.80. Silver is down -0.5% this week
- Bitcoin trading is slightly above the $100K level at $100,404. Yesterday, the high price moved to $102,582 short of the high price from last week's trade at $103,647. The price of bitcoin is down a bit this week
In the forex market, the dollar index (DXY) has changed significantly at -0.01%:. The US dollar is mixed against the major currencies of the day but is higher for the week.:
- EUR, -0.52%. For the week the US dollar was higher against the EUR by 0.66%
- JPY, +0.56%. For the week the US dollar is higher against the JPY by 2.29%
- GBP, +0.23%. For the week the US dollar against GBP was up 0.69%
- CHF, +0.16%. For the week., the US dollar against the CHF is higher by 1.73%
- CAD, unchanged. For the week, the US dollar against the CAD is higher by 0.45%
- AUD, -0.06%. For the week, the US dollar against the AUD is higher by 0.19%
- NZD +0.14%. For the week, the US dollar against the NZD is higher by 0.95%
What is moving the three major currency pairs technically. In the video below I describe the technical levels at play including the technical bias, risks and targets for your trade.
EURUSD: The EURUSD is up reconfirming the group of MAs to start the US session after bouncing close to the swing range target.
USDJPY: The USDJPY broke away from the 50% and the 200 bar MA on the 4-hour chart that had been the top this week. The price is now up testing the 61.8% retracement from the November high and has found a stall at least for now.
GBPUSD: The GBPUSD moved lower on weaker UK data but after reaching swing area support and the 50% midpoint of the move up from the 2023 low from the daily chart, the buyers came in again and pushed they price to resistance swing area.
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