TGIF in a holiday-shortened week. What moves the markets. In Europe there was no economic data out of Europe today and traders are eagerly back from the Christmas and Boxing Day holidays. In the US there will be some data out at 8:30 AM ET with:
- Good trade balance for November, Est. -100.6B vs -99.0B last month. In anticipation of Trump's tariffs this could have an impact
- The full deposits went ahead for November. 0.2% compared to 0.2% last month. Ex auto sales deposits are also due. Last month the data showed a 0.1% gain.
What's moving… Well if it's open, the markets are moving. Looking at the USD, it is moderately lower/mixed vs the major currencies:
- EUR -0.12%
- JPY -0.15%
- GBP -0.24%
- CHF +0.18%
- CAD -0.22%
- AUD unchanged
- NZD -0.25%
The USDJPY reached a new high dating back to July 17th yesterday but has reversed a minor level. The pair was supported as the Fed reduced the number of cuts in 2025 and the Bank of Japan tapped the brakes on expectations for more hikes due to uncertainty from new US President Trump and the impact from the expected taxes.
Yesterday in US stocks, they closed mixed with little changes on the day
- Dow rose 28.77 points or 0.07%
- S&P fell -2.45 points or -0.04%
- Nasdaq fell -10.77 points or -0.05%
In today's premarket trading, futures mean opening lower:
- Dow –153 points
- S&P -21 points
- Nasdaq -80 points
In the US debt market, the yield is mixed with the shorter end lower and the longer end of the curve higher after yesterday's move lower:
- 2-year 4.328%, -0.04 bps
- 5-year 4.445%, up 1.2 bps
- 10-year 4.601% up 2.2 bps
- 30-year 4.796%, up 3.5 bps
In other markets:
- Crude oil is trading up $0.59 or 0.83% at $70.21
- Gold is down -$7.00 or -0.27% at $2625.50
- Cash is making it -$0.27 or -0.95% at $29.51
- Bitcoin exchange rate is up today against $96 247
In other news, Goldman Sachs sees a Fed cut in March and 3 total cuts in 2025. That's more aggressive than the market is pricing in and the Fed is expecting (the market is slightly less than 2 cut). The cuts will come despite strong growth, core PCE still above 2% and a stable unemployment rate to be lower by the end of the year. In particular:
