Why is it important?
The ranges of estimates are important in terms of market response because when the actual data changes from what was expected, it creates a dramatic effect. Another important input in the market response is the distribution of forecasts.
In fact, although we may have a range of estimates, most predictions may be clustered at the upper end of the range, so although the data may come out within the range of estimates but on the lower end of the range, it can still create a dramatic effect.
Distribution of forecasts
Non-farm payments
- Estimates range 120K-200K
- 140K-185K range most accurate
- 160K consensus
Unemployment rate
- 4.4% (2%)
- 4.3% (30%)
- 4.2% (65%) – consensus
- 4.1% (3%)
Average hourly earnings Y/Y
- 4.1% (10%)
- 4.0% (67%) – consensus
- 3.9% (20%)
- 3.8% (3%)
Average hourly earnings M/M
- 0.4% (13%)
- 0.3% (70%) – consensus
- 0.2% (15%)
- 0.1% (2%)
Average weekly hours
- 34.4 (4%)
- 34.3 (85%) – consensus
- 34.2 (11%)
