India's latest diplomatic overture to Afghanistan's Taliban government marks a major shift in its perception of the region's geopolitical reality.
This comes more than three years after India suffered a major strategic and diplomatic blow when Kabul fell to the Taliban.
Two decades of investment in Afghanistan's democracy – through military training, scholarships and special projects such as the construction of its new parliament – were quickly undone. This collapse also paved the way for increased influence from regional rivals, especially Pakistan and China, eroding India's strategic position and raising new security concerns.
However, last week marked a shift. India's top diplomat Vikram Misri met Taliban acting foreign minister Amir Khan Muttaqi in Dubai – the highest level of engagement since the fall of Kabul. The Taliban expressed interest in strengthening political and economic ties with India, calling it an “important regional and economic power”.
The talks were reportedly aimed at expanding trade and leveraging Iran's Chabahar port, which India has been developing to overtake Karachi and Gwadar ports in Pakistan.
How important is this meeting? Delhi has now given the Taliban leadership the de facto legitimacy it has sought from the international community since its return to power, Michael Kugelman of the Wilson Center, an American think tank, told me.
“The fact that this treatment is coming from India – a country that has never had friendly relations with the Taliban, makes this all the more important, and also a diplomatic advantage for the Taliban,” he said. .
Days before India-Taliban talks, Pakistani airstrikes kill dozens in eastern Afghanistan (AFP)
Since the Taliban returned to power in Afghanistan, countries have taken different approaches to the regime, balancing diplomatic engagement with human rights and security concerns. China, for example, has gone a long way: it has actively engaged with the Taliban, focusing on security and economic interests, and even an ambassador in the country.
No country has formally recognized the Taliban government, but up to 40 countries maintain some sort of diplomatic or informal relationship with it.
That is why experts like Jayant Prasad, former Indian ambassador to Afghanistan, are more cautious about India's reach.
For the past three years, he says, India has maintained contact with the Taliban through a foreign service diplomat. India had closed its consulates in Afghanistan during the civil war in the 1990s and reopened them in 2002 after the war ended. “We didn't want this gap to continue (again), so we wanted to get involved. A relationship is just a step forward,” he says.
India has “historical ties and civilization” with Afghanistan, Foreign Minister S Jaishankar told parliament in 2023. India has invested more than $3bn (£2.46bn) in more than 500 projects across Afghanistan, giving in roads, power lines, dams, hospitals and clinics, awarded thousands of scholarships to students and built a new parliament building.
This reflects an enduring geopolitical reality. “Regardless of the type of regime in Kabul – monarchical, communist or Islamist – there has been a natural warmth between Delhi and Kabul,” said the Indian Express newspaper. was noted.
Mr. Kugelman accepts the idea. “India has an important legacy as a development donor and humanitarian aid in Afghanistan, which translates into the goodwill of the Afghan people that Delhi wants not to lose,” he said.
Interestingly, relations with Delhi seem to be easing amid growing tensions between Afghanistan and Pakistan. Pakistan claims that the hardline Pakistani Taliban (TTP) is operating from a sanctuary in Afghanistan.
Last July, Pakistan's Defense Minister Khawaja Asif told the BBC that Pakistan would continue attacks on Afghanistan as part of operations aimed at combating terrorism. Days before talks between India and the Taliban, Pakistani airstrikes killed dozens in eastern Afghanistan, according to the Afghan government. The Taliban government condemned the strikes as a violation of its sovereignty.
Taliban in full control in Afghanistan, say experts (AFP)
This marks a major deterioration in relations since the fall of Kabul in 2021, when a top Pakistani intelligence official was among the first foreign guests to meet the Taliban regime. At the time, many saw the fall of Kabul as a strategic solution for India.
“While Pakistan is not the only factor driving India's intensified outreach to the Taliban, it is true that Delhi will gain a significant advantage in its evergreen rivalry with Pakistan by moving closer on Pakistan's emergency fund which has now turned on the previous one. sponsor,” says Mr. Kugelman.
There are other reasons that lead to the exit. India aims to strengthen connectivity and access to Central Asia, which it cannot reach directly by land Experts say Afghanistan is crucial to this goal. One strategy is collaborating with Iran on the development of Chabahar port to improve access to Central Asia through Afghanistan.
“It is easier for Delhi to focus on the Afghanistan part of this plan by engaging more closely with the leadership of the Taliban, who are completely behind India's plans because it would help them to advance Afghanistan's own trade and connectivity links,” Mr Kugelman said.
Inauguration ceremony of first export convoy to India via Iran at Chabahar port in 2019 (Getty Images)
Clearly, India's recent outreach helps advance its core interests in Taliban-led Afghanistan: curbing terrorist threats to India, deepening ties with Iran and Central Asia, maintaining public goodwill through aid, and opposing a struggling Pakistan.
What about the disadvantages?
“The main threat to strengthening ties with the Taliban is the Taliban themselves. We are talking about a brutal and brutal actor who has close ties to international terrorist groups – including Pakistan – who have done little to reform themselves from what they were in the 1990s. “, said Mr. Kugelman.
“India may hope that if it keeps the Taliban on the sidelines, so to speak, the Taliban will be less likely to undermine India or its interests.” And that may be true. But at the end of the day, can you trust an actor. like the Taliban? That is the difficult question that will haunt India as it carefully continues this complex relationship.”
Mr Prasad sees no downside to India's current engagement with Afghanistan, despite concerns about the Taliban's treatment of women. “The Taliban is in full control. Letting the Taliban do the talking will not help the Afghan people. Cooperation with the international community could put pressure on the government to improve its behavior.”
“Remember the Taliban want recognition,” said Mr. Prasad. “They know that will only happen after internal reforms.” How to bring women back into public life and restore their rights to education, work and political participation.
