New Delhi, India – When China announced the creation of new counties last week, it marked boundaries that included swaths of land that India claims are part of Ladakh, a region that federally administered by New Delhi.
India quickly responded with a public outcry. External Affairs Ministry spokesman Randhir Jaiswal said New Delhi had “never accepted illegal Chinese occupation of Indian territory in this area”. China's declaration, he said, would not give any “legitimacy” to Beijing's territorial claims.
The latest spat between the Asian giants shows the fragility of a detainer they declared on their disputed border in October, after a four-year standoff between their troops. The neighbors withdrew many of their troops, even as questions about the future of the land previously under Indian control but said to have been seized by China since 2020 remain unanswered. from both sides.
Now, the relationship between India and China seems ready for another big test, say analysts: United States President Donald Trump.
The former president, who effectively launched a trade war with China in his first term, has threatened enter 100 percent tariffs imported from China. But while describing Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi as a “good man”, Trump has also made threats against India.
As the inauguration date – January 20 – approaches, Trump appears to have made a slight move on China, a country that is central to the business interests of the US president's ally, Elon Musk. who are ready to participate in the campaign. administration. All of this is creating unease in sections of India's strategic community.
Trump “tends to flatter his enemies and alienate his friends”, said Jayant Prasad, a former Indian diplomat.
In November, shortly after winning the US presidential election, Trump said he would “save” the Chinese-owned social media app TikTok, which he owned. once asked for a ban. Trump has also extended an invitation to Chinese President Xi Jinping for his inauguration. Beijing has not accepted or – at least publicly – declined the invitation, although some analysts have said that Xi is unlikely to show up.
On the other hand, it is not known that Trump sent the same invitation to Modi, with whom the US leader held two conventions in 2019 and 2020, in Houston and the Indian city of Ahmedabad. Indian social media is full of memes mocking Modi, suggesting that Foreign Affairs Minister S Jaishankar's visit to Washington at the end of last month was aimed at appealing to Trump's team for an invitation for his boss.
Trump's ambivalence toward China is worrying New Delhi, analysts said, who warned that either scenario – an anti-China campaign from Washington or a deal with Beijing – would be bad for the India.
“There are two dangers for India in (Trump's) second term,” said Christopher Clary, non-resident fellow at the Stimson Center, and associate professor of political science at the University at Albany.
“Trump and his team could be more hawkish than New Delhi's choices, especially in terms of trade and investment flows that will force India to make choices it would not like to make,” he told Al Jazeera. “On the other hand, he (Trump's team) might try to make a big deal with China to burnish his credentials as the ultimate deal maker. It would leave India in the spotlight.” . “
Prasad also said that while he expected the relationship between India and the US to remain strong, there could be bumps if Trump decides to strengthen ties with Beijing.
In an editorial, the Global Times, the mouthpiece of the Chinese Communist Party, argued last week for an approach to ties that focuses on cooperation between Beijing and Washington, particularly in areas such as technology. . The US, under President Joe Biden, has imposed a series of sanctions and other restrictions on Chinese technology, especially semiconductors. China has hit back with its own curbs, including exports of critical minerals to the US.
India, for its part, is trying to eliminate the uncertainty over Trump's approach to China. Modi is expected to hold a meeting of leaders of the Quad group – which includes the US, India, Japan and Australia – in 2025, where New Delhi wants Trump to travel to India . Meanwhile, China will host the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit this year, which Modi may travel to.
After a clash between Indian and Chinese troops in Galwan Ladakh in May 2020 left at least 20 Indian soldiers dead, New Delhi cracked down on Chinese apps – banning TikTok. India increased its scrutiny of Chinese investments and infrastructure projects in the country, citing national security concerns. But as foreign investment slowed, India's Ministry of Finance in 2024 made a case for encouraging Chinese investment again.
Amitabh Mathur, a former special secretary at the Research and Analysis Wing, India's foreign intelligence agency, said he believed the US had been aggressive in its approach towards China a few years ago and succeeded in positioning itself as a major power in the Asia Pacific. . Stronger ties between the US and India have been central to Washington's struggle against Beijing in the region.
While most experts expect Trump to continue with that broad approach, the presence of allies like Musk on his team could tighten what the US president will do. ' do, some said.
“I think the US pivot towards India in the broader Indo-Pacific context is unlikely to change – as long as it tries to have a better deal with China ,” said Anil Trigunayat, a retired Indian diplomat and strategic analyst. “There's no doubt that Musk and other businessmen on his team will try to block his excessive tax plans.”
Exactly what question India will want an answer to.
